Service Level Expectation and Monte Carlo: Answering "When Will It Be Done?" with Probability
For a single item the answer is the SLE ("85% within 14 days"); for many items it is a Monte Carlo simulation that samples historical daily throughput. Running 10,000 times on Bookstore data, our C# code says 30 items finish by 25 November with 50% probability and by 6 December with 85%. We cover reading percentiles from the right end, explaining forecasts to stakeholders and when the forecast goes wrong.
8 Nov 2026
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11 min
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6
