Estimation Beyond Points: Three-Point/PERT, Wideband Delphi, Work Breakdown and Reference Class Forecasting
To estimate uncertain work, break it down, give each piece three points, simulate the total instead of adding numbers up, and check the result from the outside against how similar past work drifted. For Bookstore's bulk order slice, a C# simulation shows the sum of most likely durations (21 days) holds only 3.1% of the time, the 85% value is 28 days, and the figure corrected with past epics is 34 days.
14 Nov 2026
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14 min
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